The fate of a cryptocurrency or how pessimistic it is that captured the crypto community
Some experts leading the opinions of the cryptocurrency community have begun to express doubt that the cryptomonet has a promising future openly. The crypto-enthusiast Michael Nye, the crypto-analyst Alex Kruger, and even eToro's well-known analyst Mati Greenspan shared their disappointing forecasts. Why is this happening and what awaits us tomorrow?
“Bitcoin will die or reach $ 500,000”
On March 7, crypto-enthusiast Michael Nye said that “we all have to remember that cryptocurrency as an asset class may cease to exist." This statement looks very challenging, considering that the last few years, Nai really spends most of his life traveling to different countries and on all continents talking to people about what the future is for cryptocurrencies and what is worth investing in. He does not give up this occupation now, but what does his statement mean? In fact, the situation is explained quite simply: a detailed study of Nai’s Twitter account leads us to the conclusion that he has invested in many cryptocurrencies, many of which have acquired at higher values than they are now. While waiting for the market to rise, it’s evident that the investor sometimes begins to lose his nerves.
Another analyst, Pierre Roshard of New York, announced on March 8 that " Bitcoin is an experiment, and it may end in failure at any moment ." This expert’s statement is surprisingly combined with his statement that “ with widespread Bitcoin, one can expect his course in the region of $ 500,000 ” - this is, obviously, Roshar is not convinced.
Etioro chief analyst for strategic analysis Mati Greenspan was also surprised. On March 7, he unexpectedly predicted that “ in half a year, if the Binance Coin token (the native digital asset of the Binance crypto-exchange) continues to grow at a rate like it is now, then it will press Bitcoin from first place in terms of capitalization.” And it could be considered some kind of an extreme point of view, but also unexpectedly the founder of Altcoin Tron, Justin San, who diligently protects his leadership in this project and tries in every way to promote it, suddenly calls the new Bitcoin, Binance Coin, as the object of his love...
It’s hard to imagine that well-known opinion leaders would think in principle to see some alternative to Bitcoin, given that even the disappearance of Satoshi Nakamoto most clearly emphasizes the decentralized nature of this cryptocurrency, in contrast to the projects, which are clearly followed by specific individual founders and organizations. This does not mean that all other tokens, accept Bitcoin, are not needed, as Bitcoin maximalists say: even the appearance of centralized cryptocurrency like JPM Coin can eventually generate additional interest in Bitcoin itself.
"Satoshi Nakamoto will be disappointed in Bitcoin"
Moreover, a detailed analysis of the forecasts of Mati Greenspan shows that he was not just “suddenly” inspired by the duty rally of one of the Altcoins, in this case, Binance Coin, but what he assumes: even Satoshi Nakamoto himself may be disappointed in Bitcoin! This idea is prompted by the message of Greenspan, in which he states that “ if at some point Satoshi Nakamoto reveals himself and decides to sell his bitcoins, then I’ll definitely start to buy." This statement means the following: at some point in time “crypto-winter” may cause the desire to say goodbye to Bitcoin even from the most persistent investor in it and the holder of the largest number of them. Remarque about the fact that Greenspan "will start to buy," says that, according to analyst eToro, Bitcoin is quite possibly not at the bottom, to start now its acquisition. And the real “bottom” will be at shallow levels when practically no one enters the market with asset purchases. In fact, in the head of Greenspan, this scenario looks very possible.
What is going on? Pessimism is overwhelming. Crypto analyst Alex Kruger cites statistics that the activity of the cryptocurrency community on Twitter, one of the main points for crypto enthusiasts, is now at a lower level than in 2015. As if addressing the answer to the favorite question: “And what will happen next with cryptocurrencies?”, The analyst answers indirectly: “ Cryptocurrency Twitter has already capitulated .” Meanwhile, the statistics given here, as analyst Matt Odell draws attention, are not confirmed, oddly enough, just by how many Kruger tweets of retweets and likes. As recognized, for example, the head of Binance Changpen Zhao, he still receives most of the information flow just from Twitter.
Cryptocurrency turnover, about which nobody knows exactly
Formally, uncertainty in a cryptocurrency environment is really a lot. Positive news about various innovations and the approximation of cryptocurrencies to institutional investors have almost entirely ceased to influence the market. It is unclear the question of the ratio of the speed of centralized and decentralized sites. On the one hand, most of the bullish analysts are now built on the fact that the turnover of centralized platforms has risen to a record since the end of 2017, from $ 10 billion at the end of 2018 to almost $ 35 billion on average per day. Such a significant increase confirms the March SFOX analytical report on the results of February. The head of Bitacium exchange Richard Yusman says that according to his information “98% of all operations with cryptocurrencies are conducted through such platforms”.
Is there real growth in cryptocurrency trading turnover? Another study, presented by the Crypto Integrity project, claims that 88% of the total turnover of centralized sites has nothing to do with reality. Similarly, the statement of Yusman can be questioned: the share of decentralized cryptocurrency trade, in any case, is above 2%.
It is worth paying attention to the feature of digital trading assets. The fact is that cryptocurrency trading can occur through proxies, that is, through proxies who can sell access to their digital wallets, as well as mortgage them. This approach can be used by countries whose companies are, for example, under US sanctions. Thus, it is impossible to find out what the actual volume of cryptocurrency turnover is, because, in order to use them, it is not necessary to move them from one address to another - precisely the same way as, for example, circulation of securities on Wall Street is built on % based on receipts issued by the DTS depository. However, if such receipts for securities are taken into account, then the circulation of similar documents, including digital ones and not necessarily on the blockchain, is not subject to accounting.
The fate of cryptocurrency does not depend on their price: they are designed for more
At the same time, the very nature of decentralized financial transactions means that if the demand for cryptocurrencies does not necessarily increase, their price will rise - the law of supply and demand only works in a centralized economy, which has the “gravity force” of money in the regulator. In decentralized finance, this is not.
It was evident that the functionality of such cryptocurrencies as a means of accumulation (for future retirement, for example), as well as their transactional potential, will eventually force out the principal motive for buying cryptocurrency today. As crypto enthusiast Andreas Antonopoulos said about this, “ now the only incentive to buy cryptocurrency is speculation on them.” The expert noted that "a significant number of those who own them now do not really need them." However, the situation is changing before our eyes: only 27% of cryptocurrency holders were able to resist and not carry out transactions with them during 2018, as stated in the FIO study.
Well, indeed, if you use cryptocurrency for transactions, given that the speed of such operations becomes almost instantaneous, then no course of digital assets can be an obstacle to the development of these properties. And this means that there can be no reason for pessimism in any view of the state of the cryptocurrency market: cryptocurrency has clearly appeared for more than just receiving income from the growth of their price. In a situation where Fiat is dying off, and decentralized digital assets are beginning to take its place, the meaning of calculating the fiat exchange rate of cryptocurrency will gradually disappear: no one considers the price, for example, of gold in boulders and shells, which were once one of the first money in human history. As admitted Recently, the well-known economist and historian Neil Ferguson, the entire history of the development of the world's monetary system confirms that Bitcoin, as a vivid embodiment of the principles of decentralized assets, is a natural step in the evolution of Fiat.